The Fourth Turning Explained: Why It Matters and How to Prepare for What’s Next.

The Fourth Turning is more than just a historical theory—it’s a framework that helps us understand the cycles of history and how they shape the world we live in today. Developed by historians William Strauss and Neil Howe, this theory suggests that history moves in cycles, each lasting about 80-100 years, and broken into four distinct phases, or “turnings.” These turnings reflect patterns of social and political upheaval, growth and rebirth. Understanding them can offer valuable insight into where we are headed.

What is the Fourth Turning?

According to Strauss and Howe, each historical cycle consists of four turnings: the High, the Awakening, the Unraveling, and the Crisis. The Fourth Turning represents the Crisis phase, a time when existing systems collapse and are rebuilt. It’s a period of upheaval and transformation, marked by major challenges to societal structures—economic, political, and social. This cycle is not a prediction of specific events, but rather an observation that societies go through predictable stages of transformation.

The Fourth Turning is not just about chaos or decline. It is also about renewal. It’s a crucible in which old systems are tested, and from the ashes, new systems emerge. Each Fourth Turning in history has brought with it major shifts. Think of the American Revolution, the Civil War, or World War II—these were all Fourth Turnings that redefined the structure of society and set the stage for the next long phase of growth.

Why Is the Fourth Turning Relevant Today?

We are currently in the midst of a Fourth Turning. Since the 2008 financial crisis, we’ve seen increased social division, economic instability, political polarization, and global unrest. Whether it’s in the rise of populism, the response to COVID-19, or the increasing tensions between major world powers, the signs of systemic breakdown are evident. The patterns outlined in the Fourth Turning suggest that we are entering the climax of this crisis phase, a period where major change is inevitable.

This historical cycle is relevant because it helps us make sense of the chaos. Rather than seeing the world’s problems as random or isolated, the Fourth Turning theory allows us to view them as part of a predictable pattern. It also suggests that the crises we face today—from environmental degradation to political instability—are leading us toward a transformation, much like past Fourth Turnings led to the formation of new social contracts and institutions.

However, the most important reason to be aware of the Fourth Turning is that we all have roles to play. Whether consciously or not, people drive these historical shifts. And while the Fourth Turning will bring instability, it also presents an opportunity to influence the direction of the future. Understanding this cycle helps us see the broader picture and prepare for what comes next, not just as passive observers, but as active participants in the world that will emerge.

How Can People Prepare for the Fourth Turning?

Preparation for the Fourth Turning requires a mindset shift. This is where the concept of Resilient, Not Reliant comes in. The systems we have long relied on—whether governmental, financial, or social—are being tested, and many of them will likely falter. Instead of being reliant on fragile institutions, individuals need to build resilience in their lives, families, and communities.

One of the first steps is recognizing the fragility in the current systems. Governments are strained, economies are unstable, and social trust is eroding. This is not fear-mongering—it is recognizing that change is coming, and preparation is essential. Resilience means being adaptable, resourceful, and self-sufficient in the face of these changes.

Financial preparedness is crucial. The economic turbulence of the Fourth Turning could lead to currency devaluation, inflation, or disruptions to traditional job markets. Diversifying income streams, investing in tangible assets like land, property, and precious metals, and avoiding excessive debt can provide a buffer during economic uncertainty.

Equally important is community building. The Fourth Turning is a time of fragmentation, but also a time when small, cohesive communities can thrive. Whether through local groups, neighborhoods, or digital communities, finding and fostering connections with like-minded people will provide support and security during difficult times.

Finally, skills development is a key part of being resilient. This isn’t just about survival skills, although those can be helpful. It’s about cultivating the ability to adapt to new environments, learn quickly, and contribute meaningfully. As the old systems give way to new ones, those who can navigate the changes and bring valuable skills to the table will not only survive but thrive.

Why Embrace the Fourth Turning?

The Fourth Turning isn’t something to fear—it’s something to understand. Knowing that we are in a period of major transformation allows us to take control of our actions and make better decisions for the future. The coming years will undoubtedly be challenging, but they will also offer opportunities for those who are prepared. As systems break down, new ideas, communities, and ways of living will rise to replace them. Those who embrace resilience, adaptability, and preparedness will be at the forefront of shaping this new era.

The Fourth Turning is not just a theory, but a call to action. It’s a reminder that history moves in cycles and that we are entering a crucial moment of change. For those willing to prepare, it’s a chance to shape the future, build stronger communities, and lead the way into a new era of renewal.